Raiffeisen Polbank: Pod koniec roku tempo wzrostu PKB Polski może się zbliżyć do 4 proc. Przyczyni się do tego konsumpcja wewnętrzna i eksport

gospod7W I kwartale na wyniki firm mogą jeszcze wpływać wahania nastrojów konsumenckich, a polska gospodarka może rosnąć poniżej 3 proc. – ocenia Marta Petka-Zagajewska, główna ekonomistka banku Raiffeisen Polbank. W kolejnych miesiącach powinien jednak rosnąć eksport, konsumpcja i inwestycje. W efekcie wzrost PKB może sięgnąć pod koniec roku 4 proc.

– Możemy się obawiać, że w pierwszym kwartale wahania nastroju konsumentów mogą jeszcze negatywnie przełożyć się na wyniki przedsiębiorstw – zauważa w rozmowie z agencją informacyjną Newseria Marta Petka-Zagajewska, główna ekonomistka banku Raiffeisen Polbank. – Dodatkowo wynikom ciążyć będą bardzo dobre, zaskakująco silne, dane za pierwsze trzy miesiące ubiegłego roku, czyli to, co nazywamy efektem wysokiej bazy. Istnieje więc ryzyko, że wzrost za pierwszy kwartał br. będzie nieznacznie niższy niż 3 proc.

Prognozuje, że w kolejnych kwartałach polska gospodarką będzie nabierać wigoru. Sprzyjać jej będzie poprawiająca się sytuacja gospodarcza Niemiec, które są największym odbiorcą krajowego eksportu (około jednej czwartej polskiej sprzedaży zagranicznej). W wyniku tego tempo wzrostu będzie coraz wyższe i w drugiej połowie roku może się zbliżyć do około 4 proc.

– Sprzyjać temu będzie wciąż wysoki popyt konsumpcyjny, wsparty tym, co się dzieje na rynku pracy, oraz słabe euro i bardzo niskie stopy procentowe, które zaczynają pozytywnie wpływać na niemiecką gospodarkę, z czego będą korzystać polscy eksporterzy – tłumaczy Petka-Zagajewska. – Z dużym prawdopodobieństwem można więc stwierdzić, że eksport ponownie być czynnikiem sprzyjającym tworzeniu wzrostu gospodarczego w Polsce.

Kolejnym elementem pobudzającym wzrost będą fundusze europejskie z nowej perspektywy unijnej, które powoli zaczynają napływać do Polski.

– Już w przygotowaniach firm do startowania w przetargach powinniśmy widzieć pozytywny efekt tego czynnika na ostateczne dane o wzroście gospodarczym – przekonuje Petka-Zagajewska.

Według Głównego Urzędu Statystycznego PKB w IV kwartale ubiegłego roku wzrósł o 3 proc. w porównaniu z tym samym okresem 2013 roku. Wynik ten był zbliżony do przewidywań ekspertów. Pełne dane za ten kwartał zostaną opublikowane przez GUS 27 lutego br.

Źródło: Agencja Informacyjna Newseria

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